The Bills pulled the Chiefs for Week 1, a team that went 10-6 last year after a forgettable 2009 season and won its first division title since 2003. The Chiefs finished No. 1 overall last year in rushing yards per game, a stat that could spell doom for the Bills, who finished last in the league in rush defense giving up nearly 170 yards on the ground per game.
When the Bills have the ball:Keep an eye on wide receiver Donald Jones, who was listed as probable for most of last week after suffering a concussion during the preseason, his second as a pro. Despite being cleared to play, we all know how tricky concussion issues can be, and if Jones isn’t 100 percent, look for David Nelson and perhaps Marcus Easley to split time at the No. 2 position, though Easley is dealing with issues of his own, leaving practice early Friday with an illness. He is listed as probable. That said, expect the Bills to stick to what they know best, their ground game. It’ll be interesting to see how much the Chiefs D can disrupt that and force Fitzpatrick to convert third downs, which at 38 percent last year, could use some help.
When the Chiefs have the ball:
The tandem of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will probably be tough to miss against a defensive front that struggled all last year dealing with the run. That may open things up for quarterback Matt Cassel, who’s had better weeks. Cassel has been listed as probable with sore ribs after dealing with a shoulder injury the week before. That’s not to say he can’t very easily turn the game around with a play-action pass or two to Dwayne Bowe, but I expect to see the Chiefs stick to what worked last year and keep the ball on the ground. The Bills are going to have to try to force some turnovers from this offense to stay in the game, and I’m sure they would love to work on that minus-17 turnover ratio from last year.
How the Bills can win:
Plain and simple -- stuff the run. With a banged-up Cassel, if the Bills can make the Chiefs go to the air on third down instead of banging through a one or two yard conversion, their chances of punts and turnovers skyrockets. Be sure to look out for Bills’ 343-pound rookie defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, who was Buffalo's top pick from Alabama. Dareus has had ankle issues in preseason, and the Bills have been careful to not overuse him thus far. Expect him to be blitzing early and often as the Bills try to improve on their ability to sack the quarterback, which finished in the basement league-wide last year.
How the Chiefs can win:
The Chiefs need to not overthink this one. Keep the ball on the ground and keep the chains moving. Take what the Bills’ D line is going to give and go from there. Even at less than 100 percent, Cassel can still convert on third down if necessary. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City was one of only five teams in the AFC last year to finish with a positive turnover ratio. They need to put Fitzpatrick in a position to make a mistake. Whether that be long third-down conversions or getting a couple scores early to beef up the pressure, if Buffalo goes into panic mode this could be a rollover for the Chiefs.
Matchup to watch:
The Bills' offensive line is going to have its hands full with the Chiefs' blitzers, especially Tamba Hali, the AFC’s sack leader in 2010. If the line can keep Hali and the Chiefs' D in check and give Fitzpatrick some time in the pocket, the passing game, as well as Fred Jackson’s performance, will reap the benefits.
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