While the Colts are chasing the Houston Texans in the division and will likely have to earn a Wildcard, the Patriots have all but locked up the AFC East. Now, it's just a matter of how high of a seed they can get.
DECIDING FACTORS:
Third down. The Patriots boast the NFL's best third down offense, moving the chains on 50 percent of third downs. Conversely, they have the second-worst third down defense. Meanwhile, the Colts are no slouches offensively on third down, moving the chains 44 percent of the time, and their 37-percent third-down defense isn't awful. This will be key.
Luck, or skill? New England has been winning this season despite owning one of the league's worst defenses, namely against the pass. However, the Patriots have come up with timely turnovers and have been pretty stout in the red zone when they absolutely need to make play. Luck will have his opportunities, but he'd better make the most of them.
Talib effect. Newly-aquired cornerback Aqib Talib, who came to the Patriots via a trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, will make his New England debut Sunday after coming back from a four-game suspension. Talib's presence will allow Devin McCourty to settle at safety, where he's played the last few weeks, and can't hurt a very bad secondary. The Patriots hope he's the key to turning it around, and he'll have his chance to prove himself immediately.
Run it off. The Patriots have rushed for 92 first downs, which is by far the most in the NFL. The Colts are giving up 4.7 yards a carry, so there's no question the Patriots will run the ball as much as possible, not only for production, but to take away the Colts' strength, which is having its offense on the field.
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A week in Patriots posts at AFCEastDaily.com:
