Sunday, November 25, 2012

Week 12 AFC East game picks: Bills at Colts

Lead writer Nick St. Denis and AFC East Daily contributors Dan Begnoche and Sean Donovan pick the Buffalo Bills' road contest against the Indianapolis Colts.

Nick's take:
Bills tailback C.J. Spiller is slated for a big day against a Colts run defense that gives up way too many big scampers. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be good enough, and Buffalo's rushing attack will limit rookie quarterback Andrew Luck and his Colts offense's opportunities by eating a lot of clock. Plus, Buffalo's defensive front pressures Luck into a couple costly mistakes, including a pick to the red-hot Jairus Byrd.
Prediction: Bills 27, Colts 23

Dan's take:
The difference in this matchup may be which team converts more big plays than it gives up. Buffalo has given up 43 plays of 20 yards or more this year and has completed 39. In comparison, the Colts have given up 37 and converted 48. Indy's specialty has been its passing attack, while Buffalo's has been Spiller's explosive run game. Buffalo's more balanced offense and special teams play takes this one, forcing Luck to be one-dimensional and giving punt returner Leodis McKelvin one too many opportunities.
Prediction: Bills 36, Colts 27

Sean's take:
Buffalo's maligned defense can hold it's head up high after dominating the hapless Dolphins a week ago, but it will face an entirely different caliber of rookie quarterback in Luck. The Colts' dynamic passing attack will barbeque the Bills' vanilla defensive scheme, and Fitzpatrick will not muster enough firepower to keep up. Indianapolis wins big and solidifies its frontrunner status for an AFC Wild Card spot.
Prediction: Colts 38, Bills 21