Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Strength of schedule, adjusted with Vegas odds

BY NICK ST. DENIS

Every year, an "official" NFL strength of schedule ranking is compiled, combining teams' records from the previous season.

The problem with that, however, is that a team's previous record isn't necessarily a good indication of how good it will be the next year, given how much things can change in the offseason. Front offices are different, coaches move around, and players come and go.

So nfltraderumors.co has taken the basic strength of schedule template and adjusted it using every teams' current Vegas Super Bowl odds (via Bovada).

Here's each AFC East team's strength of schedule prior to being adjusted:

Team               O      H      R
9. Jets            .520  .516  .523
10. Patriots    .516  .508  .523
12. Dolphins  .508  .531  .484
14. Bills         .500  .516  .484

But adjusted with every team's Vegas odds, this is the more accurate order:

Via nfltraderumors.co:
19. Bills
23. Jets
27. Dolphins
29. Patirots

Check out the full adjusted rankings here, compared to the standard here, via ESPN.com.

And for reference, here's each team's 2014 non-division opponents:

BUFFALO BILLS
Home: Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Away: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Home: Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Away: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Home: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions
Away: Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings

NEW YORK JETS
Home: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions
Away: Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings

Follow Nick @NickStDenis
Follow AFC East Daily @AFCEastDaily