Sunday, December 16, 2012

Gameday Deciding Factors: 49ers at Patriots

BY NICK ST. DENIS

No team has scored more points than the New England Patriots (10-3), and no team has given up fewer points than the San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1). Tom Brady's red-hot scoring offense, averaging 36.3 points per game, is on a direct collision course with a defense surrendering just 14.2 points a contest. (photo: Bay Area Bias, Flickr)

New England, coming off a rout of the Houston Texans in a game that was supposed to be close, could be playing in a Super Bowl preview Sunday night.

DECIDING FACTORS:

Ridley's role. Patriots running back Stevan Ridley remains the team's best-kept secret, as the second-year player has quietly rushed for 1,082 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Ridley's contributions Sunday night against a stout run defense will be critical in loosening up the 49ers' defensive front, which will be pinning its' ears back to get after Patriots quarterback Tom Brady from the get-go.

Receiving help. It'll be all hands on deck for the Patriots' receiving corps against the 49ers' defense. New England's offense is an OK matchup with a great pass rush, because Brady is good at getting the ball out fast, and the Patriots' best receiver in Wes Welker is slot guy who gets into space quickly. Brandon Lloyd will stretch things out, but tight end Aaron Hernandez and Welker will be targeted plenty in the middle of the field, which won't be an easy task against a linebacker corps stout in coverage.

Smith and Smith. 49ers outside linebacker Aldon Smith leads the NFL in sacks with 19.5, thanks in part to the work of defensive lineman Justin Smith, who opens up opportunities for Aldon to capitalize on mismatches. The pair will pose major issues for Patriots offensive tackle Nate Solder, who will need to be fundamentally sound while getting good help from guard Logan Mankins.

Capping Kaepernick. The 49ers opted to roll with second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick for the second part of the season regardless of Alex Smith's health, and it's paid off thus far. Kaepernick's big-play ability and great leg work gives opponents a whole lot to prepare for during the week and a whole lot to account for on the field. New England, however, will give Kaepernick a plethora of looks itself, and the turnover-happy squad is poised to take advantage of Kaepernick's inexperience.
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A week in Patriots posts at AFCEastDaily.com:

Week 15 AFC East game picks: 49ers at Patriots

Patriots won't rush Rob Gronkowski's return

Moss's insight to 49ers on New England: 'It's cold'

Belichick: Moss is 'the smartest WR I've coached'

Branch is Patriots' latest plug-and-play receiver

Around-the-Web AFC East power rankings: Week 15

Stallworth sees season-high, low within 24 hours

Wilfork leads impressive showing by Patriots' 'D'

Tom Brady goes all Tom Brady on the Texans