Saturday, January 31, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks

BY DAVID HEIM

For the sixth time in the Brady-Belichick era, the New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl. Lost in the distraction of “Deflategate” (or whatever we’re calling this thing), the Patriots actually played and won a couple football games against some really good football teams this postseason.

Two weeks ago, the Pats completely shut down Andrew Luck and Co., notably T.Y. Hilton, who finished with just one catch for 36 yards. Our two matchups to watch for the AFC Championship Game were T.Y. Hilton versus the Pats secondary and the Pats running game versus the Colts run defense. New England followed and exceeded in both of those matchups en route to a 45-7 blowout over Indy.

The story is similar this week. There is no question how little room for error there is for the Patriots against the defending champion Seattle Seahawks this weekend in Glendale, Az. They’re going to need to key in on some areas to take down the champs.

To be the champs, you have to beat the champs. Here’s your 2014 Super Bowl Preview. Patriots versus Seahawks.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Pats run defense versus Marshawn Lynch

Lynch has enjoyed another successful season as the cowbell of the Seahawks defense. Quarterback Russell Wilson is certainly capable of making plays, but Lynch’s role in the offense is never questioned. Lynch ran wild again in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay two weeks ago, finishing with 157 yards on the ground and a score in the ‘Hawks 28-22 win in overtime. Expect Lynch to be the battery to the offense that he is again Sunday night, which is why it is crucial the Patriots have an answer.

The Patriots finished ninth in the league in rush defense, giving up an average of 104.3 yards on the ground per game. Seattle, on the other hand, finished first in rush offense with 172.6 yards a game. This matchup will be huge on the field Sunday night, and might just have enough on the line to be the deciding factor of the game.

The bottom line for New England?

Shut down No. 24 and make Wilson beat you in the passing game. Green Bay just about did that last week and the almost came away with the victory.

Rob Gronkowski versus whichever defender(s) cover him

The speculation is that it will be safety Kam Chancellor who has the honor of attempting to shut down Gronk on Sunday, but who knows if that is the only look or player Seattle throws at the Pats tight end. Guys like Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and Earl Thomas are other candidates to matchup with Gronk. Whoever it is though, the Patriots need to make sure they can find No. 87 the football.

Seattle did not match up well against tight ends in 2014, and they struggled mightily against the guy who would fit the Gronkowski bill the most—Antonio Gates. In their Week 2 matchup with San Diego, the Seahawks let Gates run all over their defense. Gates finished with seven catches for 96 yards and three touchdowns in a Chargers 30-21 win.

Gronkowski is unlike any other player, let alone tight end, Seattle has seen all season. With Richard Sherman likely attempting to take Julian Edelman and/or Brandon LaFell out of the game plan, Gronkowski becomes so much more important to the Pats passing attack.

INJURY REPORT

Here is the injury report for both teams as of Friday, Jan. 30.

New England Patriots
Player
Pos.
Injury
Friday Participation
Game Status
Ayers, Akeem
LB
Knee
Limited Participation
Probable
Stork, Bryan
C
Knee
Limited Participation
Probable
Hightower, Dont’a
LB
Shoulder
Limited Participation
Probable
Jones, Chris
DT
Elbow
Limited Participation
Probable
Siliga, Sealver
DL
Foot
Limited Participation
Probable

Seattle Seahawks
Player
Pos.
Injury
Friday Participation
Game Status
Britt, Justin
TE
Knee
Full Participation
Probable
Lynch, Marshawn
RB
Back
Full Participation
Probable
Sherman, Richard
CB
Elbow
Full Participation
Probable
Sweezy, JR
G
Ankle
Full Participation
Probable
Thomas, Earl
S
Shoulder
Full Participation
Probable


THE SKINNY

This is by far New England’s toughest test of the season, and rightfully so. With all of the talk the past two weeks about deflated footballs, the biggest storyline of all has been lost—the game. For the second straight season we have a clash of the leagues two No. 1 seeds, and without a doubt the two best teams in their respective conferences. Seattle is looking to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the ’03-’04 Patriots. The team standing in their way? Right. It’s only fitting.

Again, New England is going to have to play a near perfect game to beat the champs. However, I believe this is the most complete Patriots squad since their last Super Bowl a decade ago. (Wow, it’s still shocking to believe a Bill Belichick team hasn’t won in that long.) With that being said, I think this team is ready to go toe-to-toe with a team like Seattle. While the Pats defense have not seen a running back as good as Lynch all season, it has seen far better offensive attacks than the one Seattle poses. I like the Patriots' defense in that matchup. On the flip side, I think Brady, Gronkowski and Co. will make enough plays offensively and in the red zone to outscore the Seahawks.

Prediction: Patriots 27 Seahawks 17.

Other predictions:
MVP: Tom Brady.
Game Stats:
Tom Brady- 286 passing yards, 2 touchdowns
Russell Wilson- 195 passing yards, 1 touchdown
Marshawn Lynch- 114 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
Rob Gronkowski- 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 touchdown
Darrelle Revis- 4 tackles, 1 interception

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