For the ninth time in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, the New England Patriots are playing in the AFC Championship game. Sunday marks the fourth straight season the Pats are playing in the conference final, but this season might be the most complete team to compete for a title even over those previous squads.
The Patriots welcome young quarterback sensation Andrew Luck, who appears only a short time away from taking over the league. Luck has not fared well against Belichick and the Pats in his three year career; he’s 0-3 and sports six touchdown passes to eight interceptions with a 68.7 quarterback rating.
Bottom line…Luck has struggled against the Pats, arguably more so than any other team he has faced.
Both teams are riding high off of their divisional round wins over the Ravens and Broncos, respectively. And while Sunday’s matchup appears to be a battle of a quarterback legend versus the future of the league, there are much bigger matchups to keep eyes on.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH
T.Y. Hilton versus Pats secondary
In their Nov. 16 matchup with the Colts on Sunday Night Football, the Patriots' defense completely erased Colts playmaker T.Y. Hilton from the game plan. In a rather shocking move, Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia stuck nickel cornerback Kyle Arrington on the speedy Hilton, instead of Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner.
The end result?
Just three catches for 24 yards for Hilton.
If the Patriots can wipe out Hilton without using Revis or Browner on him and stick those two guys on other players like Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen, it could be a long night for Andrew Luck.
Patriots run game versus Colts run defense
The Colts were below league average (111.3 yards per game allowed) in run defense in 2014, and we all know the success the Patriots have had running the ball on Indy’s defense in the last two matchups. LeGarrette Blount single-handily advanced the Pats to the title game last year with his 166-yard, four-touchdown performance in the 2013 divisional round. Fast forward to Nov. 16., and it was the same story. Only newcomer Jonas Gray ran wild for 201 yards and four scores in the 42-20 blowout win. In last year’s divisional round game against the Colts, the Patriots threw the ball just 25 times compared to 38 rushes.
Nov. 16th?
30 passing attempts to 39 rushes. So clearly, Belichick’s game plan against the Colts in recent matchups has been to attack with the run game. Last week against Baltimore, the Pats ran the ball just nine times, with no rushes coming in the second half.
Earlier this week, Tom Brady sounded off on the importance of balancing out the offense this weekend.
“We ran the ball the pretty good against (the Colts) last time obviously, and we are going to need to be balanced and run it and throw it this weekend,” Brady said this week, via ESPN Boston.
INJURY REPORT
Here is the injury report for both teams as of Friday, Jan. 16.
New England Patriots
Player
|
Pos.
|
Injury
|
Game Status
|
Stork, Bryan
|
C
|
Knee
|
Out
|
Browner, Brandon
|
CB
|
Knee
|
Probable
|
Hightower, Dont’a
|
LB
|
Shoulder
|
Probable
|
Jones, Chris
|
DT
|
Elbow
|
Probable
|
LaFell, Brandon
|
WR
|
Shoulder/Toe
|
Probable
|
Indianapolis Colts
Player
|
Pos.
|
Injury
|
Game Status
|
Davis, Vontae
|
CB
|
Knee
|
Questionable
|
Toler, Greg
|
CB
|
Groin
|
Questionable
|
THE SKINNY
There is a lot of speculation this week that the Patriots should crush the Colts on Sunday. Maybe they will, who knows. They have had ample success against the Colts in recent history, and Andrew Luck in particular. But the fact is that Luck is growing up before everyone’s eyes and is maturing each and every week. Ultimately, this Patriots team is better built for a championship run than the Colts are this season, and it should show Sunday night. Luck makes enough plays to keep his team in the game, but guys like Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and whoever is running the ball for the Patriots make more plays on offense, and the hard-nosed defense should be able to limit the Colts offensively.
David's prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 23
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